Comparison of models of simazine transport and fate in the subsurface environment in a citrus farm

Contamination of groundwater by agrochemicals is now widely recognized as an extremely important environmental problem. Modern agricultural practices involve the combined use of irrigation with the application of large amounts of agrochemicals to maximize crop yield. Due to flood irrigation and natural runoff, agricultural activities might generate soil, surface water and groundwater contamination problems and leaching of pesticides. Modeling of the transport and fate of pesticides, such as simazine, may help understand the long-term potential risk to the subsurface environment. This paper illustrates a comparative study via the use of three different pesticide transport simulation models and the applicability of those models in determining the groundwater vulnerability to pesticides contamination in a citrus orchard located at the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV). The three models used in the study are the pesticide root zone model-3 (PRZM-3), the pesticide analytical model (PESTAN) and integrated pesticide transport modeling (IPTM). The concentration values obtained from all three models are in agreement, and they show a decreasing trend from the surface through the vadose zone. The problem is how to use this information and, specifically, how to combine the testimony of a number of experts into a single useful judgment. With the aid of the fuzzy multiattribute decision making method, PRZM-3 is deemed as the most promising one for such precision farming applications.     

A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

基于SVR的长江经济带水环境承载力评价

基于DPSIRM模型构建区域水环境承载力评价指标体系,并基于SVR模型构建了区域水环境承载力评价模型,利用交叉验证法对SVR模型参数进行优化选择,进一步提高模型预测精度.运用该模型研究了长江经济带2009~2018年的水环境承载力演变趋势及空间差异,结果表明：长江经济带水环境承载力等级整体呈现升高趋势,其中上游城市群承载等级由II级（超载）提升到了IV级（弱可承载）;中游城市群承载等级由II级（超载）提升到了IV级（弱可承载）;下游长三角区域承载等级由I级（重超载）提升到了IV级（弱可承载）.将评价结果与熵权-TOPSIS法的评价结果相比较,相同率达到91.7%,说明SVR模型评价区域水环境承载力可行,评价结果可靠.以下游区域为例,分别对其6个子系统的承载力进行剖析,并运用单因素轮换OAT法对各子系统内的评价指标进行敏感性分析,便于决策者识别指标敏感性.     

Application of the benthic index of biotic integrity to environmental monitoring in Chesapeake Bay

The Chesapeake Bay benthic index of biotic integrity (B-IBI) was developed to assess benthic community health and environmental quality in Chesapeake Bay. The B-IBI provides Chesapeake Bay monitoring programs with a uniform tool with which to characterize bay-wide benthic community condition and assess the health of the Bay. A probability-based design permits unbiased annual estimates of areal degradation within the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries with quantifiable precision. However, of greatest interest to managers is the identification of problem areas most in need of restoration. Here we apply the B-IBI to benthic data collected in the Bay since 1994 to assess benthic community degradation by Chesapeake Bay Program segment and water depth. We used a new B-IBI classification system that improves the reliability of the estimates of degradation. Estimates were produced for 67 Chesapeake Bay Program segments. Greatest degradation was found in areas that are known to experience hypoxia or show toxic contamination, such as the mesohaline portion of the Potomac River, the Patapsco River, and the Maryland mainstem. Logistic regression models revealed increased probability of degraded benthos with depth for the lower Potomac River, Patapsco River, Nanticoke River, lower York River, and the Maryland mainstem. Our assessment of degradation by segment and water depth provided greater resolution of relative condition than previously available, and helped define the extent of degradation in Chesapeake Bay.     

化工区环境突发事件的数学预测及应对措施

通过对某市化工区环境污染物概况的调查,建立了污染风险模型,并且根据模型获得的结果确定了区域内的主要污染物。在此基础上提出了化工区环境突发事件的应对措施,为今后的应急监测提供的理论保证。     

ASM1中废水和污泥组分浓度的测定方法研究

对呼吸计量法应用于校准ASM1作了简明的阐述。在呼吸速率与模型组分关系的基础上,介绍了ASM1中废水与污泥各组分浓度的测定方法,并指出模型组分细化的意义。     

关于室内装修有害气体烘焙排风稀释技术数值研究

依据实测数据,应用数值计算手法,对烘焙排风稀释技术不同工况下总挥发性有机化合物的排除量、烘焙排风稀释阶段室内空气中总挥发性有机化合物的浓度变化进行计算并讨论烘焙温度、换气次数对去除效果的影响。     

托盘式烟气脱硫喷淋塔空塔冷态流场数值模拟

以600MW机组多孔合金托盘喷淋塔为研究对象,利用国际流行的商用CFD(ComputationalFluidDynamics)软件Fluent及其前处理软件Gambit对烟气脱硫立式喷淋空塔的流场进行二维数值模拟。计算中选用模型作为计算模型,用SIMPLE算法进行计算。计算结果表明,喷淋塔的烟气入口角度以及多孔合金托盘的安装高度对塔内流场分布有一定的影响,安装托盘后气速明显均匀化,斜切式烟气进口流场分布较直进式均匀,还获得了合适的托盘安装高度。     

水环境中重金属的生物毒性预测模型

简要介绍了近年来发展的几种金属生物毒性预测模型，如FIAM、GSIM和BLM等模型。金属与生物有效性和毒性之间的关系，是制定金属的水质标准的依据，随着对金属形态及其生物有效性和毒性关系研究的深入，产生了很多的机理描述模型。描述金属与生物作用的现存模型有多种，分别从多种角度解释了环境因素对金属形态分布及其生物毒性的影响，各模型在一定程度上可给出重金属的生物毒性信息，但都存在缺陷，不能完全替代毒性实验。建立合理的金属毒性预测模型，为建新的水质标准提供依据，正是国际环境界研究的热点。     

化学强化一级处理系统BP神经网络建模研究

运用实验室得到的数据为样本，选取了CODcr和絮凝剂投加量为指标，采用三层结构的神经网络，利用Matlab的神经网络工具箱中的批处理梯度下降法对CEPT系统进行辩识。辩识结果表明：模型的预测值与实测值的平均误差在3．7％左右，具有较高的精度。同时，该模型还具有适应性强，使用方便，高效的特点，为CEPT系统的在线实时控制提供了一条有效的途径。